Although they have yet to make any major additions to their roster, the Marlins have made the biggest splash of the 2014-15 offseason so far, signing slugger Giancarlo Stanton to a record 13-year contract worth $325 million. You don't sign Stanton to that deal unless you're planning to contend, but clearly Miami will need more help to get into the postseason.
Crow, 28, was twice a first round pick -- the Nationals selected him ninth overall in 2008, then the Royals selected him 12th overall in 2009. He declined to sign with Washington and instead spent the spring of 2009 with the independent Fort Worth Cats. Crow made the Kansas City bullpen out of spring training in 2010 and he has a 3.43 ERA (120 ERA+) with a lot of ups and downs in the four years since.
 
Marlins acquire Aaron Crow from Royals
 
The Marlins are simply gambling on Crow's upside. Specifically, they're rolling the dice that an offseason of rest will bring his fastball back to where it was from 2010-13. Brooks Baseball says his fastball averaged approximately 95 mph from 2010-13 but dropped to roughly 93 mph in 2014:
Miami isn't looking at Crow's 4.12 ERA (97 ERA+) and 5.40 FIP in 2014, they're looking at his first round pedigree and 3.19 ERA (130 ERA+) and 3.74 FIP from 2010-13. All they gave up was an up-and-down lefty in Flynn and a Single-A reliever in Redman, so it's not like they paid a high price. Crow is projected to make only $2 million through arbitration in 2015 according to MLB Trade Rumors, so his salary is reasonable too.
Miami is able to roll the dice on someone like Crow because their bullpen is very quietly deep and excellent. At least it was in 2014. Reliever performance can be very volatile year to year, but they had seven solidly above-average relievers this past season. All on the right side of 30 too. Here are their top seven relievers in terms of innings pitched in 2014:
That's a really strong group. Collectively they had a 2.41 ERA with a 2.75 K/BB in 365 1/3 innings. More than one out of every eight walks they issued was intentional as well, artificially suppressing that K/BB number. Cishek, Ramos and Dunn have been pitching well for multiple years now, and Morris has had some nice seasons with the Pirates before being acquired in a trade this past June.
The Marlins aren't bringing in Crow to be a key part of the bullpen. Cishek, Ramos, Dunn and Morris will make up the core of manager Mike Redmon's late-inning relief crew. Crow's a depth addition who is currently eighth on the team's bullpen depth chart, at best. He has minor league options remaining, so he can go to Triple-A if need be. That flexibility has some value too.
There's a chance Crow's fastball is gone for good and his declining performance in 2014 was a sign of things to come. If that's the case, the gamble didn't work out. That's baseball. Paying a small price in terms of players given up and salary to get someone with Crow's pedigree is a gamble the Marlins can make because their bullpen is already in good shape. If they were counting on him to be an important part of the 'pen, well then that would be a much different story.
Mike Axisa/CBS Sports
 

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